The Australian dollar (AUD) fell against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday, continuing its losing streak for the fifth session in a row. The AUD/USD pair remains muted ahead of November’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision due later today.
The RBA is widely expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.6% on Tuesday. The interest rate decision is scheduled for release at 03:30 GMT along with the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and the quarterly economic forecasts, followed by a press conference from RBA Governor Michele Bullock.
The Melbourne Institute reported on Monday that the TD-MI inflation gauge rose 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) in October, down slightly from a 0.4% rise in September but marking the second straight monthly increase. Meanwhile, the annual inflation gauge rose 3.1%, up from the previous 3.0%.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on building permits, which rose 12.0% MoM, after falling 3.6% in August and beating market expectations for 5.5% growth. ANZ job adverts fell 2.2% month-on-month in October, following a revised 3.5% decline in the previous month. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
US Dollar gains ground amid cautious tone on Fed outlook
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its winning streak and is currently trading around 100.00. The greenback receives support from the cautious sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy stance for December.
- Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 65% chance of a cut in December, down from 94% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.7 from 49.1 in September. This reading came in weaker than the market expectation of 49.5.
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week during the post-meeting news conference that another rate cut in December is far from certain. Powell also warned that policymakers may need to take a wait-and-see approach until official data reporting resumes.
- The US Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point rate cut last week, lowering its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4.0% by a 10-2 vote. The decision was not unanimous, as Fed Governor Stephen Miran supported a larger cut of 50 basis points, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.
- Traders are cautious due to the extended government shutdown, which could fuel economic concerns in the United States (US). The US government impasse has now entered its sixth week with no easy end in sight amid a congressional impasse over the Republican-backed funding bill.
- The White House announced that China will suspend extra export controls on rare earths and end probes for US semiconductor companies in exchange for the US pausing some tariffs and canceling a planned 100% tax on Chinese exports.
- US President Donald Trump said he plans to block China from accessing Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology, according to CBS News. His remarks could reignite trade tensions between the United States and China, which had eased after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday during the APEC summit in South Korea.
- China’s RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.6 in October from 51.2 in September. The market forecast was a 50.9 print. It is important to note that any shift in China’s economic conditions could also affect the Australian dollar (AUD), given the close trade ties between China and Australia.
- RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for Q3 rose 1.0% and 3.0% on a quarterly and annual basis respectively. Markets estimated a rise of 0.8% QoQ and 2.7% YoY in the quarter to September. The monthly consumer price index rose 3.5% year-on-year in August, compared to the previous reading of a 3.0% increase. This figure came in hotter than the expectation of 3.1%.
- Australia’s hotter-than-expected Q3 inflation and August CPI data reduced expectations of near-term interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). RBA Governor Bullock noted that the labor market remains somewhat tight despite the unexpected rise in unemployment.
Australian dollar remains below 0.6550 as exchange rate momentum weakens
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6530 on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is in a consolidation phase and is trading sideways within a rectangle pattern. The recent move below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) signals a weakening of short-term price momentum.
The primary support appears at the psychological level of 0.6500. A break below this level will see the AUD/USD pair navigate the region around the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6460, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414.
On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 0.6540. Further advances would reinforce short-term price momentum and support the AUD/USD pair to test the crucial level of 0.6600, followed by the upper border of the rectangle around 0.6630. A break above the rectangle would signal a bullish bias and support the pair in exploring the region around the 13-month high of 0.6707 recorded on September 17.
AUD/USD: Daily chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against major listed currencies today. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.09% | 0.18% | 0.30% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | 0.03% | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.23% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.11% | 0.21% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.33% | 0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.02% | 0.01% | -0.12% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.21% | -0.09% | 0.12% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.33% | -0.21% | -0.12% | -0.17% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies in relation to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the bid currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent AUD (basis)/USD (quote).
Economic indicator
RBA interest rate decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy and raises interest rates, it is usually bullish for the Australian dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA takes a dovish view of the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for the AUD.
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Last release:
Tuesday, Nov. 4 2025 03:30
Frequency:
Irregular
Actually:
3.6%
Consensus:
3.6%
Previous:
3.6%
Source:
Reserve Bank of Australia