China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 4.8% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, compared with growth of 5.2% in the second quarter, official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. The figure came in line with market consensus.
On a quarterly basis, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.1% in the third quarter after a 1.1% advance in the previous quarter, above the market consensus of a 0.8% print.
China’s June annual retail sales rose 3.0% versus 2.9% expected and 3.4% earlier, while industrial production came in at 6.5% versus 5.0% estimate and August’s 5.2%.
Meanwhile, fixed asset investment fell 0.5% year-to-date (YTD) year-on-year (YoY) in September against an expected 0.2% increase and a 0.5% increase in the previous reading.
AUD/USD reaction to China data dump
The Australian dollar (AUD) is edging slightly higher in an immediate reaction to China’s GDP and activity data. At press time, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.24% on the day at 0.6511.
Price for Australian dollar last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against major listed currencies over the last 7 days. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the Canadian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.65% | -0.66% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -1.02% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | -0.24% | -0.21% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.45% | -0.64% | |
| GBP | 0.65% | 0.24% | 0.08% | 0.73% | 0.71% | 0.70% | -0.42% | |
| JPY | 0.66% | 0.21% | -0.08% | 0.69% | 0.60% | 0.74% | -0.43% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.49% | -0.73% | -0.69% | -0.13% | -0.03% | -1.14% | |
| AUD | 0.00% | -0.49% | -0.71% | -0.60% | 0.13% | -0.02% | -1.12% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.45% | -0.70% | -0.74% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -1.11% | |
| CHF | 1.02% | 0.64% | 0.42% | 0.43% | 1.14% | 1.12% | 1.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies in relation to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the bid currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent AUD (basis)/USD (quote).
This episode was published on Monday at 1:00 GMT as a preview of China’s trade balance data.
China Quarterly GDP Summary
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will release its data at 02:00 GMT. China’s quarterly GDP is estimated to grow 0.8% in the third quarter (Q3), compared with a 1.1% expansion in Q2. On an annual basis, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.8% against 5.2% previously.
Meanwhile, retail sales are expected to show a 2.9% year-on-year (YoY) increase in September, compared to 3.4% in the previous reading. Industrial production is expected to show an increase of 5.0% year/year in the same period against 5.2% previously.
How could China’s quarterly GDP affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD traded negative on the day ahead of China’s quarterly GDP, retail sales and industrial production. The pair is gaining ground as the US dollar weakens as the US federal government shutdown has entered its 19th day with no end in sight.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the Oct. 15 high of 0.6523. The next resistance level appears at the September 1 high of 0.6560, heading for the October 6 high of 0.6620.
On the downside, the October 10 low of 0.6472 will offer buyers some comfort. Extended losses could see a decline to the July 31 low of 0.6424. The next level of contention is located at the psychological level of 0.6400.
Frequently asked questions about GDP
A country’s gross domestic product (GDP) measures the growth rate of its economy over a given period, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP with the previous quarter, e.g. 2nd quarter 2023 vs 1st quarter 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g. 2nd quarter 2023 vs. 2nd quarter 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the quarter’s growth rate as if it were constant for the rest of the year. However, these can be misleading if temporary shocks affect growth for a quarter, but are unlikely to last the whole year – as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency, as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attract higher foreign investment. Similarly, it is usually negative for the currency when GDP falls. When an economy grows, people tend to spend more, leading to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to raise interest rates to fight inflation, with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency to appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP increases, people tend to spend more, leading to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to raise interest rates to fight inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold compared to placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, higher GDP growth is usually a bearish factor for the gold price.