- EUR/USD threw the charts near 1,0850 on Monday.
- Markets pull into midrange when investors are waiting for Trump -duty.
- The European Inflation Update, Wednesday, Wednesday, US NFP Labor Data Dump on Friday.
EUR/USD flubbed a Bullish race at the 1,0850 level on Monday and started the new trading week on a decisive lukewarm foot. Investors are preparing for the latest round with customs threats from US President Donald Trump. The Trump administration plans to implement a wide range of tariffs that affect almost all US trading partners starting April 2. While the specific details of these customs strategies remain unclear, major threats include “mutual” tariffs for any country that imposes on its own import tariffs on US products, regardless of the financial situation. Further retaliatory guares in Canada and the European Union are also expected together with the proposed rugs on copper and cars.
European inflation figures will be updated this week with preliminary harmonized index for consumer prices (HICP) Inflation planned for a Wednesday release. There is not much change on the Pan-EU-Inflation front, with the price pressure that remains stubbornly stable, but delivers few surprises in 2025.
On the US page, a new print of US working numbers non -Farm Payroll (NFP) will be due later this week. This NFP release could be an important data point for markets as the US economy is leading into an economic environment after the customs, with March’s working data set to act as a “bellwether” for the effects of the Trump team’s customs plans.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD continues to trade in the middle of a technical trap where buyers are unable to take a firm leg higher but short pressure for limited to push the fiber preaching back during the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) just south of the 1,0700 grip.
EUR/USD broke an almost term losing row and pushed technical oscillators into oversold territory, but a continuation pattern is still unlikely as market participants focus on geopolitical factors.
EUR/USD Daily Diagram
Frequently asked questions about euro
The euro is the currency for the 19 EU countries belonging to the euro zone. It’s the second largest traded currency in the world behind the US dollar. By 2022, it accounted for 31% of all currency transactions with an average daily turnover of over $ 2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most traded currency paper in the world that accounts for an estimated 30%discount on all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the Reserve Bank for the eurozone. The ECB sets the interest rate and manages monetary policy. ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher interest rates – will usually benefit the euro and vice versa. The ECB Board Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by managers of the national banks in the euro area and six permanent members, including the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone -inflation data, measured by the harmonized index for consumer prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if over ECB’s target of 2%, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its colleagues will usually benefit the euro as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases measure the health of the economy and can affect the euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacture and Services PMIs, Employment and Consumers’ Mood Investigations can all affect the direction of the individual currency. A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment, but it can encourage the ECB to set up interest rates that will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if financial data is weak, the euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially important as they account for 75% of the eurozone economy.
Another significant data waiver for the euro is the trade balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns on its export and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces a lot of sought -after export, its currency will win in value exclusively from the extra demand created by foreign buyers trying to buy these goods. Therefore, a positive net spirit balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.