The Australian dollar (AUD) is stabilizing against the US dollar (USD) following the release of the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Friday. Traders await key quarterly inflation data for Australia next week, which could shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook.
Australia’s preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.7 in October from 51.4 previously. Meanwhile, the Services PMI rose to 53.1 in October from the previous reading of 52.4, while the Composite PMI rose to 52.6 in October from 52.4 previously.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock spoke in Sydney but did not comment on monetary policy or the economy. Bullock said that starting next year, the central bank will consider ways to modernize the interbank settlement system, which processes about A$300 billion ($194.94 billion) in daily transactions and plays a key role in the payments infrastructure, according to Reuters.
The AUD could face challenges amid growing bets on a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Australia’s latest jobs report threw an unexpected curveball, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level in nearly four years in September. The surprise increase prompted markets to raise the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut to 70%, a sharp jump from around 40% just a week earlier.
The White House confirmed Thursday that President Donald Trump will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week, coinciding with another round of high-level trade talks scheduled for this weekend during the ASEAN summit. Any shift in China’s economic conditions could also affect the Australian dollar (AUD), given the close trade ties between China and Australia.
US Dollar inches higher ahead of Consumer Price Index data
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground and is currently trading around 99.00. Traders will want to take a cautious stance ahead of September’s US inflation data due out on Friday amid the ongoing government shutdown and resulting data blackout.
- The greenback is pulling support after President Trump said on Wednesday he expects to make more deals with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in South Korea next week. The Trump-Xi discussions are expected to cover a wide range of issues, including US soybean exports, limiting nuclear arms and China’s purchases of Russian oil.
- The US dollar could struggle as the prolonged US government shutdown delays key US economic data releases, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), adding to uncertainty for financial markets and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
- The US government shutdown has entered its 24th yearth today, marking the second-longest federal funding drain in history, with no end in sight. The GOP-backed stopgap bill failed to pass the Senate for the 12th time Wednesday night.
- A Reuters poll suggested that 115 out of 117 economists have forecast that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% in the Oct. 29 monetary policy announcement. For the year, 83 out of 117 economists expect the US central bank to cut interest rates twice, while the US central bank 2 times expects to cut interest rates twice.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now pricing in a nearly 97% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and a 96% chance of another cut in December.
- The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday decided to keep its one- and five-year lending rates (LPR) unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively.
- China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8% year-on-year (YoY) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, as expected after 5.2% growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the economy grew 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), beating market consensus of a 0.8% print.
- President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an $8.5 billion critical minerals deal at the White House on Monday, aimed at securing access to Australia’s abundant rare earth resources amid China’s tightening export controls. Both nations have also committed to invest at least 1 billion USD each over the next six months in mining and processing projects.
Australian dollar is hovering around the nine-day EMA above 0.6500
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6510 on Friday. Technical analysis of a daily chart suggests a persistent bearish bias, with the pair trading within a descending channel. The 14-day RSI remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may be navigating the area around the four-month low of 0.6414, followed by the lower limit of the descending channel around 0.6390. A break below this confluence support zone would strengthen the bearish bias and cause the pair to test the five-month low of 0.6372.
The AUD/USD pair is hovering around the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 0.6508. A successful break above this level would improve the short-term price momentum and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6541, aligned with the upper limit of the descending channel.
AUD/USD: Daily chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against major listed currencies today. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.18% | -0.00% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | -0.05% | 0.11% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.16% | -0.01% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.17% | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.02% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.16% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.00% | 0.16% | -0.03% | -0.00% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.01% | -0.04% | 0.13% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies in relation to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the bid currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent AUD (basis)/USD (quote).
Economic indicator
S&P Global Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released monthly by S&P Global, is a leading indicator that measures private business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and service sectors. The data originates from surveys of senior employees. Each answer is weighted in accordance with the size of the company and its contribution to the total production or service production represented by the sub-sector to which the company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change from the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for the AUD.
Read more.
Last release:
Thu 23 October 2025 22:00 (Prel)
Frequency:
Monthly
Actually:
52.6
Consensus:
–
Previous:
52.4
Source:
S&P Global